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赌2020年特朗普经济纯属愚蠢

wuya 2019-11-29 13:38

 

大多数政治专家认为,特朗普总统明年将很难连任。川普在摇摆州的民调中落后于潜在的民主党对手。对特朗普工作表现不满意的选民比赞成的多。事实上,近一半的受访者不仅不喜欢特朗普;他们甚至希望看到特朗普被弹劾:

 

特朗普总统广受欢迎。现在,微弱多数的美国人支持弹劾特朗普总统。来源:Fivethirtyeight


尽管有这些警告信号,仍有一个巨大的理由期待特朗普轻松连任。

 

问题出在经济上吗?


比尔·克林顿的竞选顾问詹姆斯·卡维尔在1992年创造了这个著名的短语。尽管美国在海湾战争中取得了压倒性的胜利,但由于国内经济低迷,当时的老布什总统在民意调查中举步维艰。正如卡维尔所指出的,选民们会为了他们的钱包而忽略很多其他的东西。卡维尔建议在经济问题上打击布什,克林顿在1992年取得了胜利。


2015年,中国经济遭遇自金融危机以来最慢的增长。这次经济衰退让希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的总统竞选失败,因为选民们,尤其是中西部地区的选民,愿意在未来不同的经济前景上掷骰子。


特朗普已经做到了这一点。正如这条推文所言,美国经济正创下各种纪录:

 

特朗普经济正在打破纪录,关注经济的选民有很多理由支持特朗普


股票市场绝对繁荣。到目前为止,房地产市场已经摆脱了对另一个泡沫的恐惧。失业率处于几十年来的最低水平。即使有这些好消息,美联储也已经做好了进一步降息的准备。这将在选举日之前进一步刺激经济。

 

不要在经济繁荣时期做空特朗普


LPL Financial的Ryan Detrick发布了这张图表,使得这种动态很容易理解:

 

根据历史,很可能再次当选。消息来源:推特


简单地说,每一位在竞选连任前享受良好经济环境的现任总统都成功地赢得了第二任期。自第一次世界大战以来,按照这个标准,11位总统中有11位是现任总统。


相比之下,如果在总统竞选连任之前出现了经济衰退,那么他们的连任几率只有七分之二。


因此,只要经济继续破纪录,这就是特朗普的败选。最早可能出现衰退的时间是明年年初。但随着美联储开始进一步降息,就连这种可能性也越来越小。贸易战中的意外或弹劾特朗普的努力可能会颠覆一切,但就目前而言,特朗普显然是明年总统选举的热门人选。

 

Most political experts think President Trump will struggle to get re-elected next year. Trump trails potential Democratic rivals in swing state polling. More voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance than approve of it. In fact, nearly half of polled respondents don’t just dislike Trump; they go so far as to want to see Trump impeached:

 

A narrow majority of Americans now favor impeaching President Trump | Source: Fivethirtyeight

 

Despite those warnings signs, there is still one huge reason to expect Trump to be re-elected with ease.

 

It’s The Economy, Stupid

 

Bill Clinton’s campaign adviser, James Carville, coined that famous phrase in 1992. Despite the U.S. winning an overwhelming victory in the Gulf War, then President George H.W. Bush was struggling in the polls because of an economic downturn at home. As Carville noted, voters will overlook a lot of other things in favor of their wallets. With Carville’s advice to hammer Bush on the economy, Clinton rolled to victory in ’92.

 

In 2015, the economy hit its slowest stretch since the Financial Crisis. This downturn helped sink Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid as voters, particularly in the Midwest, were willing to roll the dice on a different economic vision going forward.

 

And Trump has delivered in that regard. As this tweet notes, the economy is hitting all sorts of records:

 

Voters focused on the economy have many reasons to favor Trump | Source:Twitter

 

The stock market is absolutely booming. The housing market has managed to shrug off fears of another bubble so far. And unemployment sits at its lowest levels in decades. Even with all that good news, the Fed has postured itself for more rate cuts. This should stimulate the economy even more ahead of election day.

 

Don’t Bet Against Trump in a Booming Economy

 

LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick posted this chart which makes this dynamic easy to understand:

 

The odds strongly favor Trump’s re-election bid | Source: Twitter

 

Simply put, every incumbent president who enjoyed a good economy ahead of their re-election bid successfully won their second term. Since World War 1, incumbent presidents are 11 out of 11 by this standard.

 

By contrast, if there was a recession ahead of a president’s reelection campaign, they only earned a second term two out of seven times.

 

Thus, this is Trump’s election to lose as long as the economy keeps breaking records. The earliest a recession could hit would be early next year. But with the Fed set on more rate cuts, even that prospect looks increasingly unlikely. Surprises in the trade war or the efforts to impeach Trump could upend things, but for now, Trump is the clear favorite in next year’s presidential vote.

    来自: CCN