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土耳其经济复苏之路曲折

wuya 2019-12-1 15:47

      自去年土耳其货币里拉对美元汇率“闪崩”之后,里拉的走势一直受到国际社会的关注。近日,土耳其总统埃尔多安再次向全国民众发出支持本国货币的呼吁,引发社会各界热议。

 

  土耳其经济“罗生门”

 

  据土耳其阿纳多卢通讯社报道,埃尔多安26日在正义与发展党议会代表团会议上,驳斥网络上关于土耳其经济“崩溃”的言论,对民众发出“放弃美元,转投里拉怀抱”的倡议,并表示“要用这种方式展示民族性”。他列举数据称,土耳其近期零售额和消费者信心指数都有所上升,经济合作与发展组织将土耳其今年的经济增长预期由负0.3%调整为0.3%,并表示“对土耳其投资的所有人都能得到收获”。

 

  土耳其财政部长阿尔巴伊拉克27日也表示,土耳其政府国际收支状况良好。他称,2019年土耳其城镇失业率预计为12.9%,2020年之后通胀率将下降并长期维持在个位数,2019年计划将贸易逆差控制在国内生产总值的3%以下。土政府的新经济政策已经取得了成果,将继续执行。

 

  但另一方面,土耳其各大在野党都对土耳其经济状况发出了警告。土国内最大在野党共和人民党主席科勒齐达奥卢近日表示,土耳其人民的人身和财产安全都已经失去保障,当下的经济困境正在严重影响每一个普通民众的生活,这些统治者应该为土耳其共和国历史上最严重的失业状况负责。他还将土耳其近期发生的几起家庭成员集体自杀事件归咎于当前的经济危机。

 

  土耳其美好党主席阿克谢娜尔则于26日称,埃尔多安关于土耳其经济已经开始复苏的言论与实际情况相距甚远。土耳其经济上依赖外资,外交上倚仗美国,农业产品基本依赖进口,农民的日子越来越艰难。

 

  经济学家祖尔夫卡尔对记者表示,目前土耳其央行和各大国有银行正在出售美元以支持里拉,尽量防止里拉快速贬值。但这不是长久之计,目前土耳其央行外汇储备为1011亿美元,由于央行没有足够的外汇,操作空间十分有限。

 

  土耳其货币前景仍不明朗

 

  卡塔尔是土耳其在中东地区最亲密的朋友,两国同属逊尼派国家,在地区问题上有诸多利益共同点,在外交上常站在同一阵营发声。此间报道称,埃尔多安本月25日赴卡塔尔首都多哈,与卡塔尔埃米尔阿勒萨尼举行会晤,共同出席了土耳其-卡塔尔高级战略委员会第五次会议,并一同见证了两国之间签署的7项协议。其中包括,两国央行之间签订了《关于土耳其里拉与卡塔尔里亚尔货币互换的协议》,两国还同意共同建立贸易便利化和保护消费者组织,并在标准化协调机制领域开展合作。

 

  祖尔夫卡尔告诉记者,此次土卡之间签订了等值50亿美元的货币互换协议,以帮助土耳其渡过里拉货币危机,但这笔资金同样不足以解决问题。土耳其得到了逊尼派卡塔尔的支持,但土耳其里拉的前景仍不明朗,这也是土耳其总统发出支持里拉呼吁的原因。

 

  祖尔夫卡尔指出,目前土耳其各大银行已经吸纳了2255亿美元的存款,较年初增长了360亿美元,大部分是民众从里拉换来的,这种现象严重制约了土耳其的经济发展。此外,土耳其还面临债务问题,其中1年内短期外债达到1760亿美元,所有外债超过4000亿美元,其中3000亿美元来自私有企业,这让土耳其各大财团和银行承受巨大压力。申请破产的企业数量在增加,银行可能有1400亿里拉贷款无法收回。与此同时,土美关系的微妙局势也可能导致来自美国的经济压力。(冯源)

 

The movement of the Turkish lira has been under international scrutiny since last year's "flash crash" against the dollar. Turkish President recep tayyip erdogan has renewed his appeal for support for the country's currency, sparking heated debate.


Turkey's economy 'rashomon'


Speaking at a parliamentary delegation meeting of the justice and development party (ak) on Wednesday, erdogan dismissed online talk of a "collapse" in Turkey's economy, saying he would "give up the dollar and move to the lira" and "show our nationality in this way," anadolu news agency reported. He cited recent increases in retail sales and consumer confidence, and the organization for economic cooperation and development revised its growth forecast for Turkey to 0.3 percent this year from minus 0.3 percent, saying "everyone who invests in Turkey will reap the benefits."


Turkey's finance minister said Wednesday that the government's balance of payments is in good shape. Urban unemployment is expected to be 12.9 percent in 2019, inflation will fall and remain in single digits for a long time after 2020, and the country plans to keep the trade deficit below 3 percent of gross domestic product in 2019, he said. The new economic policy of the Turkish government has achieved results and will continue to be implemented.


On the other hand, Turkey's main opposition parties have issued warnings about the state of the economy. The President of the largest opposition party, the republican people's party (CHP), said recently that the safety and security of the Turkish people had been lost, the current economic difficulties are seriously affecting the lives of ordinary people, these rulers are responsible for the worst unemployment in the history of the Turkish republic. He also blamed the current economic crisis for several recent mass suicides of family members in Turkey.


Recep tayyip erdogan's claim that Turkey's economy has started to recover is far from the truth, the head of the Turkish better party, aksyenar, said on the 26th. Turkey is economically dependent on foreign investment, diplomatically dependent on the United States, and largely dependent on imports for agricultural products, making life increasingly difficult for its farmers.


Economist zulfkar told reporters that Turkey's central bank and state Banks are now selling dollars to support the lira, trying to prevent a rapid devaluation. But this is not a long-term solution. Turkey's central bank has foreign exchange reserves of $101.1 billion and has limited room to operate because it does not have enough foreign exchange.


The outlook for Turkey's currency remains unclear


Qatar is Turkey's closest friend in the Middle East. The two countries, both sunni states, share many interests in the region and often speak in the same diplomatic camp. Erdogan met with Qatar emir al thani in doha, capital of Qatar, on May 25, attending the fifth meeting of the turkish-qatar high-level strategic committee and witnessing the signing of seven agreements between the two countries, the report said. These included the signing of an agreement between the central Banks of the two countries on currency swaps for the Turkish lira and the qatari riyal, as well as the two countries' agreement to jointly establish trade facilitation and consumer protection organizations and to cooperate on standardized coordination mechanisms.


Mr. Zulfkar told reporters that the $5 billion currency swap agreement signed to help Turkey survive the lira crisis was also insufficient. Turkey has the support of sunni Qatar, but the future of the Turkish lira remains unclear, which is why the Turkish President has called for its support.


Mr. Zulfkar notes that Turkey's Banks have taken in $225.5 billion in deposits so far, an increase of $36 billion since the start of the year, mostly from the lira, a phenomenon that has severely constrained the country's economy. In addition, Turkey also faces a debt problem, including short-term foreign debt of $176 billion in one year, all of which exceeds $400 billion, of which $300 billion comes from private enterprises, which puts great pressure on Turkey's major conglomerates and Banks. The number of companies filing for bankruptcy is rising, and Banks may have 140 billion lira loans outstanding. At the same time, the delicate situation in turkish-american relations could also lead to economic pressure from the United States. (Feng Yuan)

    来自: 光明日报