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多国央行货币政策进入“观望期”

wuya 2019-12-2 12:42

 

今年以来,为了应对经济增速下滑,超过30个国家的央行选择降息。不过,低利率对刺激经济的递减效用以及存在引发投资风险的副作用,令不少央行感到担忧。时至年底,一些央行密切观察前期政策效果,以便采取下一步举措。

主要央行按下降息“暂停键”

11月29日,韩国央行在调低经济增长预期的同时,维持基准利率不变。今年韩国经济增长乏力,为提振经济,韩国央行于7月和10月两度降息,基准利率累计下调0.5个百分点至纪录低位1.25%。分析人士认为,韩国央行选择按兵不动,是因为要评估前两次降息的效果。

在7月、9月和10月连续实施预防性降息后,美联储累计降息幅度达75个基点。12月美联储议息会议将在上旬召开。近期,芝加哥期货交易所的利率期货数据显示,交易员预期12月进一步降息的概率下降至20%左右。分析师们认为,年内美联储进行第四次降息的必要性并不充分。

澳大利亚联储12月3日将再度议息。澳大利亚联储主席洛威已经明确表示,下次降息可能会推迟到明年,政策目标只有取得了进展,才有足够理由再次降息。不少市场人士认为,本周澳大利亚联储可能不会进一步降息。10月1日,澳大利亚联储宣布降息0.25个百分点,利率从1%降至0.75%的历史新低,以刺激停滞不前的经济。这也是澳大利亚联储今年第三次下调利率。

在加拿大央行行长波洛兹表示该国货币政策“大致恰当”之后,分析师已改变了该国央行明年初降息的预期,认为到明年年底前央行都将按兵不动。不过,鉴于贸易局势及其对大宗商品价格造成的影响,加拿大央行货币宽松的大门仍未彻底关闭。

日本央行行长黑田东彦11月29日表示,目前没有考虑进一步宽松政策,但是退出量化宽松为时尚早。业内人士据此推测,日本央行暂时不会采取进一步行动。

各国经济数据表现不一

降息之后,各国经济表现不一。

美国近一个月的经济数据大部分略有起色,也成为年内不再降息的支持因素。美国经济增长在第三季度略有回升,10月美国耐用品订单创下九个月来最大增幅,发货量也出现反弹。不过,美国核心个人消费支出平减指数月率上升0.1%,使得核心通胀率在1.6%,低于目标。美联储认为,经济活动持续扩张,劳动力市场保持强劲以及对称性通胀接近2%的目标是可能实现的,但前景存在不确定性。

韩国经济目前面临着出口和投资形势严峻、居民消费增速放缓等两大主要挑战。韩国央行近期将今明两年韩国经济增长预期分别下调0.2个百分点至2%和2.3%。最新统计显示,韩国月度出口额已连续11个月同比下降,消费价格指数数月来持续走低。

鉴于利率水平已降至历史新低,澳大利亚联储更倾向于年内按兵不动。澳大利亚联储主席洛威预计,2021年澳大利亚经济增长率有望达到3%,没有必要步其他国家后尘实施量化宽松。目前,澳大利亚楼市逐渐企稳,矿产业也有止跌之势,但该国面临的内外部经济局势仍然严峻,尤其是就业与通胀表现仍然低迷,私人资本支出下降,零售销售、汽车销售、住房建设等表现疲弱,一些分析师认为,澳大利亚联储或在2020年进一步降息后开始量化宽松。

虽然经历了最长的扩张期,日本第三季度经济增长仍然放缓至0.2%,这引发各界对日本经济见顶的担忧。自10月1日起销售税从8%提高至10%,10月日本零售销售应声同比大跌7.1%,创四年半最大降幅。日本央行始终对利率政策措辞谨慎,为进一步宽松留有余地。

加拿大第三季度出口下降1.5%,拖累第三季度经济年增长率放缓至1.3%。加拿大出口数据已数次下滑,经济韧性正受到全球贸易争端的考验。加拿大统计局11月29日发布报告指出,由于企业削减库存,经济增长率预计进一步放缓。

超低利率担忧挥之不去

从全球范围内看,不少国家的利率处于历史低位,一些国家甚至出现了负利率。出于对经济增速下滑的担忧,许多央行选择维持宽松货币政策,以刺激经济增长。

今年以来,30多个国家先后选择降息。市场人士认为,面对增长乏力的经济,收紧货币政策或使货币政策回归正常化的可能性不大。

据彭博社报道,临近年底,包括欧洲央行和美联储在内的货币当局正为低利率政策推动的冒险行为感到担忧。他们警告称,廉价资金涌入经济可能刺激风险偏好,从而引发投资风险。值得注意的是,全球金融危机爆发之前,市场充斥着种种冒险行为。

从市场表现看,历史性的低利率正在扭曲市场。8月,全球约15万亿美元的投资级债务收益率为负,大约占债券市场的三分之一。股市方面,从美国到印度的股票指数都创下了历史新高。此外,主权债券的低收益率促使资金流向房地产市场以寻求更高回报。

除了引发风险,业内对超低利率的政策效果一直存在争议。墨尔本皇家理工大学的分析人员认为,澳大利亚连续降息的作用不大,因为可能会出现边际效用递减效应。

前日本央行行长福井俊彦对量化宽松政策的态度颇为矛盾。他认为,1%是利率能够发挥作用的最低水平,这也可以给央行留出更多政策空间。但在超低的利率政策环境下,负利率对经济不利。

 

More than 30 central Banks have cut interest rates this year in response to slowing growth. However, many central Banks are concerned about the diminishing effect of low interest rates on stimulating the economy and the side effect of creating investment risk. By the end of the year, some central Banks are watching the effects of previous policy closely to take the next step.


Major central Banks hit 'pause button' on rate cuts


On November 29th the bank of Korea left its benchmark interest rate unchanged while cutting its growth forecast. South Korea's central bank has cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to a record low 1.25 percent in July and October to boost the country's sluggish economic growth this year. Analysts believe the bank of Korea chose to hold fire to assess the effects of the previous two rate cuts.


After a series of precautionary rate cuts in July, September and October, the fed has cut rates by a cumulative 75 basis points. The fed's December rate-setting meeting takes place in the first half of the month. Recently, data on cbot interest rate futures showed traders pricing in a further rate cut in December had dropped to about 20 percent. Analysts say the need for a fourth fed rate cut this year is not sufficient.


The rba will raise rates again on December 3rd. Reserve bank of Australia chairman James lowe has made it clear that the next rate cut is likely to be delayed until next year, and that the case for another cut will only be made if progress is made on the policy target. Many in the market believe the rba may not cut rates further this week. On October 1st the reserve bank of Australia cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, from 1% to a record low of 0.75%, in an effort to stimulate the stalling economy. This is the third time this year that the rba has cut rates.


Analysts have changed their forecasts for a rate cut early next year to keep the bank on hold until the end of next year after bank of Canada governor Thomas boros said the country's monetary policy was "broadly appropriate". However, given the trade situation and its impact on commodity prices, the door to monetary easing remains open for the bank of Canada.


Haruhiko kuroda, governor of the bank of Japan, said on November 29th that no further easing was being considered, but that it was too early to exit quantitative easing. Industry speculation that the bank of Japan will not take further action for the time being.


Economic data are mixed


The rate cut has been followed by mixed economic performance.


In the United States, most of the last month's economic data have been slightly better, which has also been a supporting factor for the end of the year. U.S. economic growth picked up slightly in the third quarter, with orders for durable goods rising at their fastest pace in nine months in October and shipments rebounding. However, the core personal consumption expenditure deflator rose 0.1 per cent at a monthly rate, leaving core inflation at 1.6 per cent, below target. The fed believes a sustained expansion in economic activity, a robust Labour market and symmetrical inflation close to 2 per cent are possible, but the outlook is uncertain.


The south Korean economy is facing two major challenges, namely, a severe export and investment situation and a slowdown in household consumption growth. The bank of Korea recently cut its growth forecast for this year and next by 0.2 percentage points to 2 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively. Monthly exports have fallen for 11 consecutive months from a year earlier, according to the latest statistics, while consumer prices have been falling for months.


With interest rates already at record lows, the rba prefers to stay on hold for the rest of the year. Reserve bank of Australia (rba) chairman James lowe expects Australia's economy to grow at 3% in 2021, making it unnecessary to follow other countries in adopting quantitative easing. At present, the Australian property market gradually stabilize, the mining industry has stopped falling, but the country is facing the internal and external economic situation is still grim, especially in employment and inflation remains sluggish, private capital spending, retail sales, auto sales, housing construction, such as weak, some analysts believe that the fed or in Australia after further rate cuts in 2020 began to quantitative easing.


Japan's economic growth slowed to 0.2 per cent in the third quarter, despite the country's longest expansion, prompting fears that the economy had peaked. Retail sales plunged 7.1 percent in October from a year earlier, the biggest drop in four and a half years, after the sales tax was raised from 8 percent to 10 percent on Oct. 1. The bank of Japan has been cautious about the wording of its interest-rate policy, leaving room for further easing.


Canadian exports fell 1.5 per cent in the third quarter, slowing growth to an annual rate of 1.3 per cent. Canada's export figures have fallen several times and its economic resilience is being tested by global trade disputes. Growth is expected to slow further as businesses trim inventories, statistics Canada reported on November 29th.

 

Worries about ultra-low interest rates linger


Globally, interest rates are at historically low levels in many countries, with some even experiencing negative rates. Worried about slowing growth, many central Banks have opted to keep monetary policy loose to stimulate growth.


More than 30 countries have cut interest rates this year. Market participants see little chance of tightening or normalising monetary policy in the face of anemic growth.


Toward the end of the year, monetary authorities, including the European central bank and the federal reserve, are worried about the risk taking driven by low interest rates, bloomberg reported. They warn that a flood of cheap money into the economy could spur risk appetite and thus investment risk. It is worth noting that before the global financial crisis, markets were rife with risk-taking.


Historically low interest rates are distorting markets. In August, about $15tn of investment-grade debt globally was yielding negative yields, or about a third of the bond market. On the stock market front, stock indexes from the United States to India hit record highs. In addition, low yields on sovereign bonds have driven money into the property market in search of higher returns.


Aside from the risks, there has been debate about the effects of ultra-low interest rates. Analysts at rmit university in Melbourne argue that successive rate cuts in Australia will have little impact because of the diminishing marginal utility that could result.


Toshihiko fukui, a former governor of the bank of Japan, is ambivalent about quantitative easing. He believes 1 per cent is the lowest level at which interest rates can work, giving the central bank more room to manoeuvre. But in an environment of ultra-low interest rates, negative rates are bad for the economy.

    来自: 经济参考报