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受新冠肺炎疫情影响,美国制造业活动连续第三个月收缩

2020-6-2 18:43

 

华盛顿,6月1日(新华社)——美国供应管理学会(ISM)周一发布报告称,由于新冠肺炎疫情的影响,5月份美国制造业经济活动连续第三个月收缩。


5月采购经理人指数(pmi)为43.1%,较4月上升1.6个百分点,为2009年4月以来最低水平。


任何低于50%的读数都表明制造业普遍收缩。


ISM制造业调查委员会主席Timothy Fiore在一份声明中称,"在冠状病毒大流行导致制造业中断三个月后,该委员会对近期前景持谨慎态度。"


Fiore指出,疫情影响到所有制造业部门," 5月似乎是一个过渡月,因为许多小组成员和他们的供应商在月底返回工作。"


“然而,需求仍然不确定,可能会影响库存、客户库存、就业、进口和订单积压,”他说。


报告称,在六大行业中,食品、饮料和烟草产品仍是唯一在扩张的行业。他说,运输设备、石油和煤炭产品以及金属制品继续以“强劲的水平”收缩。


尽管经济持续萎缩,富国证券(Wells Fargo Securities)高级经济学家蒂姆·昆兰(Tim Quinlan)在一份分析报告中写道,“5月份的数据为43.1,而4月份为41.5,这表明衰退的速度正在放缓。”


昆兰说:“在经历了有记录以来最糟糕的几个月之后,这是朝着更好的方向迈出的一步。”他同时指出,“未来肯定会有挑战。”


他说:“供应链中断,以及在美国乃至世界各地的工厂和车间实施新的社会疏远协议,可能意味着美国的经济复苏将比我们预期的消费者支出更快的好转需要更长的时间。”


一名来自运输设备行业的企业高管也强调了这些新协议,他在ISM报告中表示,制造工厂的社交距离措施和客户需求正在“影响生产速度”。


“尽管有2019冠状病毒病的问题,我们看到越来越多的引用活动。这还没有变成订单,但这是一个积极的信号,”一位来自计算机和电子产品行业的企业高管表示。


美国商务部周四公布,第一季度经济活动环比年率为萎缩5%,较预估低0.2个百分点。


然而,向下修正的数字仍然没有完全反映COVID-19造成的经济损失,许多分析人士认为,第二季度的下降幅度预计会更大。


美国联邦储备理事会(美联储,fed)主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近表示,失业率可能在20%或25%左右见顶,美国经济可能在第二季度大幅萎缩,年化降幅可能超过20%或30%。


在上周五普林斯顿大学(Princeton University)举行的一次虚拟讨论中,盖特纳表示,他担心会出现第二波COVID-19感染,他认为这将打击消费者信心,损害经济复苏。

 

WASHINGTON, June 1 (Xinhua) -- Economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the third straight month in May amid mounting COVID-19 fallout, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported Monday.

The Purchasing Managers' Index stood at 43.1 percent in May, up 1.6 percentage points from the April reading, which was the lowest level since April 2009.

Any reading below 50 percent indicates the manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

"Three months into the manufacturing disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic, comments from the panel were cautious regarding the near-term outlook," Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM's manufacturing business survey committee, said in a statement.

Noting that the pandemic impacted all manufacturing sectors, Fiore said "May appears to be a transition month, as many panelists and their suppliers returned to work late in the month."

"However, demand remains uncertain, likely impacting inventories, customer inventories, employment, imports and backlog of orders," he said.

Among the six biggest industry sectors, Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products remains the only industry in expansion, according to the report. Transportation Equipment, Petroleum & Coal Products, and Fabricated Metal Products continue to contract at "strong levels," Fiore said.

Despite the continued contraction, Tim Quinlan, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities, wrote in an analysis that "a reading of 43.1 in May versus 41.5 in April tells us that the pace of decline is slowing."

"After some of the worst months on record, this is a step in a better direction," Quinlan said, while noting that "there are certainly challenges ahead."

"Supply chain disruptions and implementation of new social-distancing protocols in factories and workshops not just in the United States, but around the world, likely mean that the recovery here will take longer than the quicker turnaround we expect to see in consumer spending," he said.

A business executive from the Transportation Equipment industry also highlighted the new protocols, saying in the ISM report that social distancing measures in the manufacturing plant and customer demand are "impacting the rate of production."

"Despite the COVID-19 issues, we are seeing an increase of quoting activity. This has not turned into orders yet, but it is a positive sign," a business executive from the Computer & Electronic Products industry said.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Thursday that economic activity in the first quarter contracted at an annual rate of 5 percent in a second estimate, 0.2 percentage point lower than the advance estimate.

That downwardly revised figure, however, still does not fully capture COVID-19's economic damage, and many analysts believe that the decline in the second quarter is expected to be much deeper.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently said the unemployment rate could peak around 20 percent or 25 percent, and the U.S. economy could shrink dramatically in the second quarter, at an annualized rate of more than 20 percent or 30 percent.

In a virtual discussion held by Princeton University on Friday, the central bank chief said he was concerned about a second wave of COVID-19 infections, which he believed would dampen consumer confidence and hurt economic recovery.

 

来自: xinhua