找回密码
 立即注册
首页 全球财经资讯 查看内容
  • QQ空间

世界银行预计2020年全球经济将萎缩5.2%

2020-6-9 11:34

 

图为2020年4月17日,世界银行位于美国华盛顿特区的总部。(新华社沈亭摄)


该报告称,2020年,东亚和太平洋地区的增长率预计将降至0.5%,这是今年唯一有望实现增长的地区。中国经济今年预计增长1%。


新华社华盛顿6月8日电世界银行集团8日发布最新《全球经济展望》,预计今年全球经济将萎缩5.2%。


报告称,由于国内需求和供应、贸易和金融受到严重干扰,发达经济体的经济活动预计在2020年收缩7%。美国经济今年预计将萎缩6.1%,而欧元区可能萎缩9.1%。


与此同时,新兴市场和发展中经济体今年预计将萎缩2.5%,这是"至少60年来作为一个整体的首次萎缩"。特别是拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的经济活动到2020年可能会下降7.2%。


该报告称,2020年,东亚和太平洋地区的增长率预计将降至0.5%,这是今年唯一有望实现增长的地区。中国经济今年预计增长1%。


报告指出,全球经济的前景“高度不确定,下行风险占主导地位”,包括可能出现更长时间的大流行病、金融动荡以及全球贸易和供应联系中断。

 

经济下行可能导致全球经济今年收缩8%,然后在2021年缓慢复苏,复苏幅度略高于1%,EMDEs的产出今年收缩近5%。


世界银行展望局局长Ayhan Kose说:“目前的情况已经是有记录以来对全球经济增长预期的最大幅度和最快的下调。”在1月份发布的上一份《全球经济展望》报告中,该多边贷款机构预计全球经济今年将增长2.5%。


Kose表示,"如果过去的经验可以作为参考,未来可能会有进一步的经济成长下调,这意味着决策者可能需要准备采取更多措施来支持经济活动。"


4月中旬,国际货币基金组织(IMF)在其《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)中预测,由于流感大流行,全球经济将在2020年收缩3%,最近还暗示可能在近期进一步下调预测。


“我们很可能会在6月份的某个时候更新我们的预测,”IMF总裁表示


他指出,来自许多国家的数据比IMF“已经很悲观的预测”还要糟糕。

 

世界银行的半年度报告对全球经济预测明年温和复苏,增长4.2%在基线预测,假设流行消退足以让国内缓解措施的解除年中在发达经济体和emd的后期,下半年,全球溢出效应缓解不利。


根据报告,发达经济体预计明年将增长3.9%,emde可能反弹4.6%。“在许多国家,COVID-19引发的深度衰退可能会在未来数年对潜在产出造成压力,”报告说。


世界银行集团负责公平增长、金融和机构事务的副行长Ceyla Pazarbasioglu说:“这是一个令人深感警醒的前景,这场危机可能会留下持久的伤痕,并构成重大的全球挑战。”


报告还指出,人均收入预计将下降3.6%,这将使数百万人在今年陷入极端贫困。上周,世界银行集团行长大卫·马尔帕斯表示,今年,这一流行病可能会使6000多万人陷入极端贫困。


马尔帕斯在发布报告分析部分的新闻发布会上对记者说:“穷人和最脆弱的群体受到的打击最严重,这加剧了经济增长带来的严重不平等,经济增长往往过于缓慢,无法创造就业机会、提高中等收入和提高生活水平。”

 

马尔帕斯说,面对大流行,世界银行将努力减少危害,帮助各国为恢复做好准备,使它们能够重建得更好、更强。


世界银行行长今年4月表示,国际贷款机构将在未来15个月内动员多达1600亿美元,以支持各国抗击COVID-19大流行。

 

他说:“我们的首要任务是解决全球卫生和经济紧急状况。“除此之外,国际社会必须团结起来,想尽可能有力地重建经济复苏,防止更多的人陷入贫困和失业。”


在报告中,世界银行还敦促各国政府采取措施,通过重新重视能够提振长期增长前景的改革,减轻危机对潜在产出的不利影响。


报告指出:“这一流行病暴露了许多国家国家卫生保健和社会安全网的弱点。”“有必要建立社会福利体系,在灾害期间提供有效、灵活和高效的安全网。”

 

Photo taken on April 17, 2020 shows the World Bank headquarters in Washington, D.C., the United States. (Photo by Ting Shen/Xinhua)

Growth in East Asia and Pacific is projected to fall to 0.5 percent in 2020, the only region that could see growth this year, the report said. The Chinese economy is expected to grow by 1 percent this year.

WASHINGTON, June 8 (Xinhua) -- The global economy is on track to shrink by 5.2 percent this year amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the deepest recession since the Second World War, the World Bank Group said in its latest Global Economic Prospects released Monday.

Economic activity in advanced economies is anticipated to contract 7 percent in 2020 as domestic demand and supply, trade, and finance have been severely disrupted, the report said. The U.S. economy is projected to shrink by 6.1 percent this year, while Euro Area could see a 9.1-percent contraction.

Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), meanwhile, are expected to contract by 2.5 percent this year, "their first contraction as a group in at least sixty years," according to the report. The economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean, in particular, could plunge by 7.2 percent in 2020.

Growth in East Asia and Pacific is projected to fall to 0.5 percent in 2020, the only region that could see growth this year, the report said. The Chinese economy is expected to grow by 1 percent this year.

The outlook for global economy is "highly uncertain and downside risks are predominant," including the possibility of a more protracted pandemic, financial upheaval, and retreat from global trade and supply linkages, the report noted.

A screenshot taken from worldbank.org on June 8, 2020, shows that the World Bank Group's Global Economic Prospects entitles its overview as "Pandemic, Recession: The Global Economy in Crisis." (Xinhua)

A downside scenario could lead the global economy to shrink by as much as 8 percent this year, followed by a sluggish recovery in 2021 of just over 1 percent, with output in EMDEs contracting by almost 5 percent this year.

"The current episode has already seen by far the fastest and steepest downgrades in global growth forecasts on record," said World Bank Prospects Group Director Ayhan Kose. In the previous Global Economic Prospects report released in January, the multilateral lender projected global economy to grow by 2.5 percent this year.

"If the past is any guide, there may be further growth downgrades in store, implying that policymakers may need to be ready to employ additional measures to support activity," Kose said.

In mid-April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected in its World Economic Outlook that the global economy is on track to contract by 3 percent in 2020 as a result of the pandemic, and has recently signaled it would likely further cut forecasts in the near future.

"Very likely we are going to come up with the update to our projections some time in June," IMF Managing Director

said during a virtual event in May, noting that incoming data from many countries is worse than the IMF's "already pessimistic projections."

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during a press conference in Washington D.C., the United States, Oct. 17, 2019. (Xinhua/Liu Jie)

The World Bank's semiannual forecast for the global economy predicts a moderate recovery next year, with growth of 4.2 percent under the baseline forecast, which assumes that the pandemic recedes sufficiently to allow the lifting of domestic mitigation measures by mid-year in advanced economies and a bit later in EMDEs, and that adverse global spillovers ease during the second half of the year.

Advanced economies are expected to grow 3.9 percent next year and EMDEs could bounce back by 4.6 percent, according to the report. "In many countries, deep recessions triggered by COVID-19 will likely weigh on potential output for years to come," the report said.

"This is a deeply sobering outlook, with the crisis likely to leave long-lasting scars and pose major global challenges," said Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, World Bank Group vice president for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions.

The report also noted that per capita incomes are expected to decline by 3.6 percent, which will tip millions of people into extreme poverty this year. Last week, World Bank Group President David Malpass said the pandemic is threatening to push over 60 million people into extreme poverty this year.

"The poor and the most vulnerable are hardest hit, adding to the deep inequality caused by growth that was often too slow to great jobs, higher medium incomes and better living standards," Malpass told reporters at a press call on the launch of the analytical chapters of the report.

World Bank Group President David Malpass speaks at a virtual press conference, in Washington, D.C., the United States, on April 17, 2020. (Xinhua/Liu Jie)

Facing the pandemic, Malpass said the World Bank will work to limit the harm and help countries prepare for recovery so they can rebuild better and stronger than before.

The World Bank president said in April that the international lender is mobilizing up to 160 billion U.S. dollars over the next 15 months to support countries fighting the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Our first order of business is to address the global health and economic emergency," Pazarbasioglu said. "Beyond that, the global community must unite to find ways to rebuild as robust a recovery as possible to prevent more people from falling into poverty and unemployment."

In the report, the World Bank also urged governments to take steps to alleviate the adverse impact of the crisis on potential output by placing a renewed emphasis on reforms that can boost long-term growth prospects.

"The pandemic has laid bare the weaknesses of national health care and social safety nets in many countries," the report noted. "It is necessary to put in place social benefit systems that can provide an effective, flexible, and efficient safety net during disasters."

 

来自: xinhua