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南非的商业信心指数创历史新低

2020-6-11 11:22

 

新华网约翰内斯堡6月10日电(记者李小加)南非最新公布的一项调查显示,今年第二季度,南非的商业信心创历史新低。


由经济研究局(BER)编制的兰德商业银行(Rand Merchant Bank)商业信心指数(BCI)从第一季度的18点下降到今年第二季度的区区5点,这是自1975年开始这项调查以来的最低水平。


“新冠肺炎极大地改变了已经疲软的经济前景,在某些情况下,可能是永久性的。人民币首席经济学家Ettienne le Roux表示。


他说,这项在线调查是在5月13日至6月1日期间进行的,对象是来自五个行业的1,800名高管,分别是制造商、建筑承包商、零售商、批发商和新车经销商。该指数的中性值为50,低于该值则被视为为负值。


商业信心是经济中固定投资的一个重要先导,而固定投资是提振增长和创造就业所必需的。


人民币表示,企业信心下降的主要原因是新冠肺炎疫情和随后的封锁。


“除了本已疲弱的经济之外,新冠肺炎疫情的突然出现,以及随后为应对突发卫生事件而限制经济活动,造成了巨大的信心冲击。如果第二季度BCI跌至5,那么实际国内生产总值(gdp)将出现前所未有的收缩。


"在整个经济中,随着成本上升,企业可能会继续面临收入紧缩,而疲弱的需求令价格承压。"许多公司将不得不寻找新的经营方式,可能需要更少的员工。值得注意的是,各行各业的受访者都对未来的商业环境非常悲观。


该行表示,多数半耐用品(如服装)和耐用品(家具和电子产品)零售商对销量能否很快上升表示怀疑。


人民币汇率最低记录是1985年第三季度和1977年第四季度的12个指数点。这种低迷是南非政治发展的结果。

 

JOHANNESBURG, June 10 (Xinhua) -- South Africa's business confidence hit a record low in the second quarter this year, a survey showed on Wednesday as COVID-19 containment measures continued to wreak havoc on the already weak economy.

The Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) business confidence index (BCI), compliled by the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), fell from 18 points in the first quarter to a mere five points in the second quarter of the year, the lowest level since the survey began in 1975.

"COVID-19 has drastically changed the already-weak economic landscape and perhaps, in some cases, permanently. We are likely only beginning to fully appreciate the complexity of the economic impacts of this pandemic," said Ettienne le Roux, chief economist of RMB.

He said the survey was conducted online between May 13 and June 1 on 1,800 executives from five sectors, manufacturers, building contractors, retailers, wholesalers and new vehicles dealers. The index's neutral mark is 50, with a reading below that deemed to be negative.

Business confidence is an important precursor for fixed investment in the economy, which is needed to boost growth and create jobs.

RMB said the decline in business confidence was largely due to COVID-19 and the following lockdown.

"On top of an already weak economy, the sudden appearance of COVID-19 and the subsequent restriction of economic activity to manage the health emergency, produced a huge confidence shock. A BCI plunge to five in the second quarter would be consistent with a contraction in real gross domestic product like never seen before," said the RMB spokesperson Joandra Griesel.

"Throughout the economy firms will likely continue to face an income squeeze as costs rise, while weak demand weighs on prices. Many will have to find new ways of doing business, likely using less staff. As a standout, respondents across sectors are very pessimistic about business conditions ahead," said Griesel.

The bank said most semi-durable (like clothing) and durable goods (furniture and electronics) retailers are doubtful that sales volumes will rise anytime soon.

RMB said the lowest BCI on record was the 12 index points registered during the third quarter of 1985 and the fourth quarter of 1977. The lows were a result of political developments in South Africa.

 

来自: xinhua