找回密码
 立即注册
首页 全球财经资讯 查看内容
  • QQ空间

焦点:专家表示尽管采取了措施仍对土耳其里拉下跌感到担忧

2020-8-27 13:42

 

伊斯坦布尔,8月26日(新华社)——尽管土耳其央行采取了一些措施,但仍无法阻止本国货币贬值,这一困境凸显了担心物价上涨的家庭的困境。


周三,土耳其货币对美元的汇率创下历史新低,1美元对里拉的汇率为7.41,里拉自今年年初以来贬值了20%。


投资者担心通胀上升和资本净流出的风险。自去年以来,中国央行耗尽的外汇储备加剧了这种困境。


伊斯坦布尔特拉证券(Tera Securities)的经济学家恩维尔?埃尔坎(Enver Erkan)表示:“里拉的贬值现在似乎是永久性的,尽管央行采取了流动性措施,但情况依然如此。”


他在给投资者的信息中表示:“目前的努力似乎对里拉没有影响。”他强调,在新冠肺炎疫情造成的全球经济衰退以及对可能出现第二波传染的担忧中,土耳其货币可能会进一步下滑。


里拉贬值也给高负债、有可能破产的企业部门增加了压力。土耳其的公共和私营部门债务约为4350亿美元。


印度央行上周维持利率不变,此举可能会加剧里拉的波动性,因为该货币机构正在寻找一种遏制里拉疲软的后门方式,而不是直接加息。


货币政策委员会连续第三个月将关键的一周回购利率维持在8.25%,并选择实施后门流动性措施,以支持该国陷入困境的货币。


土耳其本来就有经济上的弱点,然而,大流行让它们变得更糟,引发了人们对新一轮经济衰退的担忧,而在2018年夏季货币崩盘后爆发经济危机之前,土耳其刚刚摆脱了这种担忧。


土耳其财政部长贝拉特·阿尔巴耶拉克(Berat Albayrak)对批评进行了反驳,但他也承认,土耳其经济今年有收缩的风险,这与国际社会的预测一致。


阿尔巴耶拉克对土耳其一家电视台说,今年土耳其经济可能收缩2%,而国际货币基金组织(IMF)估计,2020年土耳其经济将收缩5%。


与此同时,土耳其至关重要的旅游业正试图收拾全球健康危机带来的残局,但其收入将远远低于去年的创纪录水平。


文化和旅游部长穆罕默德·努里·埃尔索伊(Mehmet Nuri Ersoy)在私营广播公司NTV上表示,只要航班继续运营,他预计2020年将有1500万游客,并带来110亿美元的收入。去年土耳其接待了4500万游客,带来了345亿美元的收入。


家庭担心货币贬值将意味着对日常生活的进一步挑战,因为在预期的通货膨胀上升的情况下,基本商品的价格将上升,7月份的通货膨胀达到了11.8%。


“我不相信官方数据。通货膨胀至少是宣布的两倍。上个月所有东西的价格都上涨了。在离开首都安卡拉耶尔迪泽夫勒社区的一家超市时,市政工作人员Yesim Ersoy告诉新华社。


她展示了她刚为家人买的东西,四个鸡蛋,面粉和黄油,声称这些东西的价格在一个月内上涨了10%。


“我的薪水没有增加,所以我们的负担越来越重,”她抱怨道。


世界银行8月初发布了一份关于土耳其的报告,称这个新兴国家的经济预计2020年将面临困难,其中包括贫困加剧。


报告说:“土耳其经济的重要部门极易受到与新冠肺炎相关的经济压力的影响,这可能会进一步降低就业率,降低劳动力参与率,并在2020年使贫困人口增加120万人。”


阿尔拜拉克在电视讲话中淡化了里拉贬值的影响,称“土耳其人的工资不以美元计算”,并将土耳其的金融困境归咎于外国投机者。


然而,专家警告说,土耳其从欧盟进口的都是美元和欧元。欧盟是土耳其的主要商业伙伴。

 

ISTANBUL, Aug, 26 (Xinhua) -- Turkey has been unable to prevent the national currency from depreciating despite measures implemented by the central bank, a predicament that highlights the plight of households worrying about rising prices.

Turkey's currency hit a fresh all-time low against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as one dollar was traded at 7.41 against the lira, who lost 20 percent of its value since the start of this year.

Investors are worried about the risk of rising inflation along with a net capital outflow. The central bank's depleted foreign currency reserves since last year have aggravated the woes.

"The depreciation of the lira seems to be permanent now, and this is the case despite the central bank's liquidity measures," Enver Erkan, an economist at Istanbul's Tera Securities, said.

"Current efforts seemingly don't have an effect on the lira," he commented in a message to investors, stressing that the Turkish currency could further slide amid a global economic setback caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the fear of a possible second wave of contagion.

The depreciation of the lira also adds pressure to the highly indebted corporate sector with potential insolvencies. Turkey's public and private sector debt stands around 435 billion dollars.

The central bank left its interest rates unchanged last week, risking greater volatility in the lira as the monetary institution is looking for a backdoor way of containing the currency's weakness rather than a direct hike in interest rates.

The Monetary Policy Committee held its key one-week repo rate at 8.25 percent for a third month, opting to impose backdoor liquidity measures to support the nation's troubled currency.

Turkey had already economic vulnerabilities, however, the pandemic made them worse, raising the specter of a new recession that the country was just shaking-off before the outbreak following a currency meltdown in the summer of 2018.

Turkish Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak rebuked criticism, but also acknowledged that the economy is at risk of contracting this year, in line with international predictions.

Albayrak told a Turkish television channel that this year the country's economy could shrink by up to 2 percent, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the Turkish economy will contract by 5 percent in 2020.

Meanwhile, Turkey's vital tourism industry is trying to pick up the pieces of the global health crisis, but revenues will be far less than last year's record amounts.

Culture and Tourism Minister Mehmet Nuri Ersoy said on private broadcaster NTV that he expected 15 million tourists in 2020 and 11 billion dollars in revenue as long as flights continue to operate. Last year Turkey welcomed 45 million visitors with 34.5 billion dollars in revenues.

Households are worried that the depreciation of the currency would mean further challenges to daily life as prices of essential goods are going up amid an expected rise of the inflation which stood at 11.8 percent year on year in July.

"I don't believe the official figures. The inflation is at least the double of what is announced. The price of everything went up last month. Anyone can see it," Yesim Ersoy, a municipal worker, told Xinhua as she was leaving a supermarket in the capital Ankara's Yildizevler neighborhood.

She showed items that she just bought for her family, four eggs, flour, and butter, claiming that their prices were hiked by 10 percent in a single month.

"I didn't receive an increase in my salary, so the burden is growing for us," she complained.

The World Bank has released in early August a report on Turkey, saying that the emerging country's economy is projected to face a difficult 2020, including an increase in poverty.

"Important sectors in the Turkish economy are highly vulnerable to COVID-19 linked economic strains, which could further lower employment, reduce labor force participation, and increase the poor population by 1.2 million in 2020," the report said.

Albayrak downplayed the depreciation of the lira in televised remarks, saying that "people in Turkey don't receive wages in American dollars," blaming foreign speculators of Turkey's financial woes.

However, experts cautioned that Turkey's imports are all in dollars and euros from the European Union, the nation's main commercial partner.

 

来自: xinhua