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焦点:美联储宣布应对通胀的新政策策略,可能会在未来数年保持低利率

2020-8-28 11:09

 

这张照片拍摄于2020年8月27日,地点在美国弗吉尼亚州的阿灵顿。屏幕上显示,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔正在堪萨斯城联邦储备银行的杰克逊霍尔年度研究会议上发表演讲。杰罗姆•鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)周四宣布,美联储将寻求实现平均通胀率在2%的目标,这一新的政策策略可能会让短期利率在数年内保持在接近零的水平。(新华社/刘杰)


华盛顿,8月27日(新华社)——美国联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周四宣布,中央银行将寻求实现平均2%的通货膨胀,这一新的政策策略可能会使短期利率在未来几年保持在接近零的水平。


"在通膨低于2%的时期过后,适当的货币政策可能会在一段时间内将通膨目标定在略高于2%," Powell在堪萨斯城联储Jackson Hole年度研究会议上表示。


“我们的做法可以被视为一种灵活的平均通胀目标制。我们关于适当货币政策的决定将继续反映一系列广泛的考虑,而不是由任何公式来决定。”


美联储的政策制定委员会——联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在对其货币政策框架进行了长达一年的评估后,于周四正式批准了对美联储长期目标和货币政策战略声明的修改。


鲍威尔指出,修订后的声明还显示,美联储的政策决定将根据“对就业缺口的评估”,而不是根据之前声明中“偏离其最大水平的情况”。


"这一变化可能看似微妙,但它反映了我们的观点,即就业市场可以在不引发通胀爆发的情况下保持强劲。"他表示。


富国证券(Wells Fargo Securities)经济学家萨姆•布拉德(Sam Bullard)和迈克尔•普格利泽(Michael Pugliese)周四在一份分析报告中写道:“平均通胀目标表明,美联储将容忍略高于2%的通胀率,以弥补过去的过低通胀,从而在其他条件不变的情况下,降低实际利率,实施更宽松的货币政策。”


”然而在实践中,此举是不朽的比视觉:三年多来,联邦公开市场委员会强调其2%的目标的“对称”性质的语句,”他们写道,增加他们认为美联储的转向平均通胀目标制的编纂政策,中央银行已经实际采用。


他们指出:“在这些变化中,有一件事似乎相当确定:美联储似乎不太可能在相当长一段时间内收紧货币政策。”


会计和咨询公司RSM US LLP的首席经济学家Joseph Brusuelas说,虽然这看起来是对政策的一个小的技术调整,但它会对美国经济产生重大的长期影响。


"这为央行提供了巨大的灵活性,以应对紧急情况,如明年冬季出现第二波大规模疫情,或在华盛顿当前政策两极分化持续的情况下,应对财政当局的另一项政策失败," Brusuelas称。


虽然为大约3000万美国人提供的额外联邦失业救济于7月底到期,但国会议员和特朗普政府在下一个COVID-19救助方案上仍陷于僵局。


穆迪分析(Moody's Analytics)首席经济学家马克•赞迪(Mark Zandi)在谈到双底衰退时表示:“让议员们相信经济没有经历v型复苏、没有他们的支持可能出现W型复苏的时间越长,就越有可能出现W型复苏。”


美国商务部周四公布,由于新冠肺炎疫情加剧,美国第二季度经济按年率修正后收缩31.7%。


美联储上月将基准利率维持在接近零的历史低位不变,同时警告称,近期全国新增新冠肺炎病例开始拖累经济复苏。


美联储在3月的两次非正式会议上将利率降至接近零,并开始购买大量美国公债和机构抵押贷款支持证券,以修复金融市场。它还公布了新的贷款计划,提供高达2.3万亿美元以支持经济,以应对冠状病毒的爆发。

 

Photo taken on Aug. 27, 2020 in Arlington, Virginia, the United States, shows a screen showing U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivering a speech to the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole research conference, which is held virtually this year because of the pandemic. Jerome Powell announced on Thursday that the central bank will seek to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, a new policy strategy that will likely keep short-term interest rates near zero for years. (Xinhua/Liu Jie)

WASHINGTON, Aug. 27 (Xinhua) -- U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced on Thursday that the central bank will seek to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, a new policy strategy that will likely keep short-term interest rates near zero for years.

"Following periods when inflation has been running below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time," Powell said in remarks to the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole research conference, which is held virtually this year because of the pandemic.

"Our approach could be viewed as a flexible form of average inflation targeting. Our decisions about appropriate monetary policy will continue to reflect a broad array of considerations and will not be dictated by any formula," he said.

The new approach came after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's policy-making committee, on Thursday formally approved a revamp of the central bank's statement on longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy following a yearlong review of its monetary policy framework.

The revised statement also shows that the Fed's policy decision will be informed by the "assessments of the shortfalls of employment from its maximum level" rather than by "deviations from its maximum level" in the previous statement, Powell noted.

"This change may appear subtle, but it reflects our view that a robust job market can be sustained without causing an outbreak of inflation," he said.

"Average inflation targeting signals that the Fed will tolerate inflation moderately above 2% to make up for past undershoots, resulting in lower real interest rates and more accommodative monetary policy, all else equal," Sam Bullard and Michael Pugliese, economists at Wells Fargo Securities, wrote Thursday in an analysis.

"In practice, however, the move is less monumental than meets the eye: for more than three years, the FOMC has stressed the 'symmetric' nature of its 2% target in its statements," they wrote, adding they view the Fed's shift to average inflation targeting as the codification of a policy the central bank had already de facto adopted.

"One thing does seem fairly certain amid these changes: the Fed seems unlikely to tighten monetary policy for quite a long time," they noted.

While this may seem a small technical adjustment to policy, it carries significant long-run consequences for the American economy, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting and consulting firm RSM US LLP.

"It gives the central bank a tremendous amount of flexibility to respond to exigent circumstances such as a massive second wave of the pandemic next winter or to address another policy fail by the fiscal authority if the current policy polarization in Washington, D.C. endures," Brusuelas said.

While the extra federal unemployment benefits for roughly 30 million Americans expired at the end of July, congressional lawmakers and the Trump administration remain deadlocked over the next COVID-19 relief package.

"The longer it takes to convince lawmakers that the economy is not experiencing a V-shape recovery and that without their support a W-shape is likely, the more likely it will suffer a W," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, referring to a double-dip recession.

The U.S. economy contracted at a revised annual rate of 31.7 percent in the second quarter amid mounting COVID-19 fallout, the U.S. Commerce Department reported Thursday.

The Fed last month kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the record-low level of near zero while warning that a recent resurgence in COVID-19 cases nationwide started to weigh on economic recovery.

The Fed cut interest rates to near zero at two unscheduled meetings in March and began purchasing massive quantities of U.S. treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities to repair financial markets. It also unveiled new lending programs to provide up to 2.3 trillion U.S. dollars to support the economy in response to the coronavirus outbreak.

 

来自: xinhua