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随着商业投资的复苏,美国7月份耐用品订单激增

2020-8-28 12:14

 

华盛顿,8月26日(新华社)——美国政府周三表示,随着商业投资开始复苏,美国7月份耐用品新订单激增。


根据美国人口普查局的数据,7月份耐用品新订单增加11.2%,达到2307亿美元,前一个月增加了7.7%。


核心资本财订单上月增长1.9%,因投资支出开始复苏。核心资本财订单不包括国防和飞机财,被视为企业投资的晴雨表。


富国证券(Wells Fargo Securities)高级经济学家萨拉•豪斯(Sarah House)和蒂姆•昆兰(Tim Quinlan)在周三的一份报告中写道:“推动核心资本品订单反弹的是那些为遥远社会生活提供便利的商品。”


他们指出:“电脑和通讯订单已超过2月份的水平,而机械和金属订单则继续从停工和获利前景黯淡所留下的缺口中挖出。”


均富会计师事务所首席经济学家Diane Swonk表示,美国经济在经历了今年上半年的大幅萎缩后,有望在第三季度出现反弹。


今天的数据表明,在第二季度萎缩33%之后,第三季度实际GDP将以接近30%的年化速度增长。这种增长在很大程度上将取决于8月和9月维持复苏步伐的能力。


“问题是,我们能否在第四季度保持这种增长势头;这取决于病毒的传播过程首席执行官们通过裁员和投资度过另一场大疫情的信心,突显了取得进展的脆弱性。


堪萨斯城联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)行长埃丝特•乔治(Esther George)周三警告说,新冠肺炎疫情的再度爆发可能会将美国经济拖入双底衰退。


乔治在接受CNBC采访时表示:“这种前景面临的一个重要风险是,要考虑到秋季到来时会发生什么,病毒是否会卷土重来,导致经济进一步下滑。”

 

WASHINGTON, Aug. 26 (Xinhua) -- New orders for U.S. durable goods surged in July as business investment has begun to recover, the U.S. government said Wednesday.

New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 11.2 percent to 230.7 billion U.S. dollars in July, following an increase of 7.7 percent in the previous month, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The so-called core capital goods orders, which exclude defense and aircraft goods and are seen as a barometer of business investment, rose 1.9 percent last month as investment spending has begun to recover.

"Driving the rebound in core capital goods orders has been goods that facilitate life in a socially distant world," Sarah House and Tim Quinlan, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities, wrote Wednesday in a note.

"Computers and communications orders have surpassed their February levels, while orders for machinery and metals continue to dig out from the hole left by shutdowns and more muted profit outlooks," they noted.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, a major accounting firm, said that the U.S. economy is poised for a rebound in the third quarter after a sharp contraction in the first half of the year.

"Today's data suggest that real GDP is poised to rise at close to a 30% annualized pace in the third quarter after contracting 33% in the second quarter. Much of that growth will depend upon the ability to sustain the pace of the recovery in August and September," Swonk wrote Wednesday in an analysis.

"The question is whether we can keep those gains going in the fourth quarter; that depends on the course of the virus. The confidence that CEOs have in managing through another major outbreak by cutting jobs and investments underscores the fragility of the gains," she wrote.

Esther George, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, warned on Wednesday that the resurgence of COVID-19 infections could drag the U.S. economy into a double-dip recession.

"An important risk to that outlook is thinking about what happens as we come into the fall, whether we see any resurgence in the virus that would cause an additional pullback in the economy," George told CNBC in an interview.

 

来自: xinhua