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美联储将利率维持在接近零的水平,可能至少要维持到2023年

2020-9-17 13:47

 

这张照片拍摄于2020年9月16日,是美国华盛顿特区的美联储。美国联邦储备理事会(美联储,fed)周三维持指标利率在接近零的纪录低位不变,并承诺将维持这一目标区间,直到就业市场状况改善,最终达到最大就业和平均通胀率2%的水平。(新华社/刘杰)


华盛顿,9月16日(新华社)- - -美国联邦储备理事会(美联储,fed)周三将其基准利率维持在接近于零的低位,暗示来维持这一目标范围至少在2023年之前,他指出,经济将显著依赖的路径的冠状病毒。


在为期两天的政策会议结束后,美联储的政策制定机构联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在0 - 0.25%,这一水平自3月份以来一直没有改变。


委员会预计将是适当的保持这个目标区间”直到劳动力市场状况已经达到符合委员会的评估的水平充分就业和通货膨胀率已经上升到2%,有望适度超过2%,“根据联邦公开市场委员会声明。


此次政策会议是自8月下旬央行采用新的货币政策框架以来的首次,该框架旨在实现平均通胀率为2%的目标。


美联储表示,在新的框架下,在通胀一直低于2%的时期之后,适当的货币政策可能会在一段时间内以实现通胀在2%以上为目标。


当被要求解释通胀过度的具体情况时,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三下午的一个虚拟新闻发布会上表示,“我们正在抵制试图建立某种规则或公式的冲动。”


富国证券(Wells Fargo Securities)首席经济学家杰伊·h·布赖森(Jay H. Bryson)在一份分析报告中写道:“正如人们普遍预期的那样,联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在今天的会议上没有对其政策立场做出实质性改变。”他补充称,FOMC声明的总体基调相当“鸽派”。


鲍威尔对记者说,恢复进展快于一般预期,但总体活动仍远低于疫情爆发前的水平,未来的道路仍充满不确定性。


伯南克指出,随着很多人重返工作岗位,3月和4月失去的2200万个工作岗位中,大约有一半已经恢复。截至8月,失业率仍保持在8.4%的高位。他补充说,考虑到那些被误判为有工作的人以及劳动力参与率下降,失业率可能比官方数据高出3%。


根据最新的经济预测,展望未来,联邦公开市场委员会预计失业率将继续下降。预计今年年底的失业率中值为7.6%,2023年底为4%。这仍高于COVID-19大流行前该国经历的3.5%的历史低点。


与此同时,预测中值显示,通胀预计将在今年年底达到1.2%,并将逐步回升,直到2023年底达到2%。


17位美联储官员中,有13位预计未来三年利率将维持在接近零的水平,即便通胀率达到2%,失业率降至4%左右。


“我们预计,未来几个季度消费者价格指数(cpi)将继续攀升。也就是说,我们普遍预计通胀率将保持在2%以下。


Bryson指出,联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)可能最终感到有必要提供更多宽松政策,他表示,如果通胀没有很快显示向2%靠拢的迹象,FOMC可能决定上调资产购买利率。


在最新的联邦公开市场委员会声明中,美联储表示在未来几个月将增加其持有的美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券(mbs)至少在目前的速度维持平稳的市场运作,帮助培育宽松的金融环境,从而支持家庭和企业的信贷流动。


目前,美联储每月购买800亿美元的国债和400亿美元的抵押贷款债券。


均富会计师事务所的首席经济学家Diane Swonk在一篇博客中指出,联邦公开市场委员会既关注病毒的进程,也关注复苏的步伐,委员们认为这两者是相互交织的。


斯旺克说:“这就是整个夏天驼鹿病例死灰复灰令人担忧的原因。”据美国约翰霍普金斯大学(Johns Hopkins University)的统计,截至周三下午,美国新冠肺炎确诊病例已超过660万例,死亡人数超过196,400人。


联邦公开市场委员会在声明中称:“近期内,持续的公共卫生危机将继续对经济活动、就业和通胀构成压力,并对中期经济前景构成相当大的风险。”


鲍威尔说,由于失业率居高不下,众多小企业举步维艰,州和地方政府的财政状况也很糟糕,可能需要更多的财政支持来支持经济复苏。


他说:“经济活动和就业恢复到今年年初的水平需要一段时间。要达到这个水平,可能需要货币和财政政策的持续支持。”


斯旺克说,需要更多的国会援助,更好地使用口罩,进行检测和追踪,以确保更好地恢复。她补充称:“人们担心,如果没有这些措施,复苏将在第四季和第一季碰壁。”

 

Photo taken on Sept. 16, 2020 shows the U.S. Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C., the United States. The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the record-low level of near zero and promised to maintain this target range until labor market conditions improve to reach maximum employment and inflation averages 2 percent over time. (Xinhua/Liu Jie)

WASHINGTON, Sept. 16 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the record-low level of near zero and signaled to maintain this target range until at least 2023, noting that the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the coronavirus.

After conclusion of a two-day policy meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's policy setting body, decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 0.25 percent, a level that hasn't been changed since March.

The committee expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range "until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time," according to the FOMC statement.

The policy meeting is the first since the central bank in late August adopted a new monetary policy framework, which seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time.

Under the new framework, the Fed said, following periods when inflation has been running below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.

When asked to explain the specifics about inflation overshooting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a virtual news conference Wednesday afternoon that "we're resisting the urge to try to create some sort of a rule or a formula here."

"As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee made no substantive changes to its policy stance at today's meeting," Jay H. Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities, wrote in an analysis, adding that the overall tone of the FOMC's statement was rather "dovish."

Powell told reporters the recovery has progressed more quickly than generally expected, but overall activity remains well below its level before the pandemic and the path ahead remains highly uncertain.

The central bank chief noted roughly half of the 22 million jobs that were lost in March and April have been regained as many people returned to work, and unemployment rate remained elevated at 8.4 percent as of August. He added that the level of unemployment is probably 3 percent higher than the official data, considering those people who are misidentified as employed and the declined labor force participation.

Looking ahead, the FOMC projected the unemployment rates to continue to decline, according to the latest economic projections. The median projection for unemployment rate is 7.6 percent at the end of this year, and 4 percent by the end of 2023. It's still above the historically low of 3.5 percent the country experienced before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Inflation, meanwhile, is expected to reach 1.2 percent by the end of this year, and will gradually pick up before reaching 2 percent by the end of 2023, the median projection showed.

Most Fed officials, 13 out of 17, expected interest rates to stay near zero over the next three years, even if inflation reaches 2 percent and the unemployment falls to around 4 percent.

"We look for rates of consumer price inflation to creep higher in coming quarters. That said, we generally expect that inflation will remain below 2 percent," Bryson said.

Noting that the FOMC may eventually feel compelled to provide more accommodation, Bryson said the committee could decide to dial up the rate of its asset purchases if inflation does not soon show signs of moving up toward 2 percent.

In the latest FOMC statement, the Fed said over coming months it will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning and help foster accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

Currently, the Fed is purchasing 80 billion dollars a month in Treasuries and 40 billion dollars a month in mortgage-backed debt.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, a major accounting firm, noted in a blog that the FOMC is concerned about both the course of the virus and the pace of the recovery, and members see the two as intertwined.

"This is what makes the resurgence in COVID cases over the summer so concerning," Swonk said. As of Wednesday afternoon, the United States has recorded more than 6.6 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and over 196,400 deaths, according to a tally of Johns Hopkins University.

"The ongoing public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term," according to the FOMC statement.

As unemployment rate remains high, numerous small businesses are struggling, and state and local governments are in dire financial situation, more fiscal support is likely to be needed to support economic recovery, Powell said.

"It will take a while to get back to the levels of economic activity and employment that prevailed at the beginning of this year, and it may take continued support from both monetary and fiscal policy to achieve that," he said.

Swonk said more congressional aid, better use of masks, testing and tracing are all needed to ensure a better recovery. "The fear is that the recovery will hit a wall in the fourth and first quarters, absent such measures," she added.

 

来自: xinhua