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土耳其里拉跌至新低,因为央行维持利率

2020-10-23 14:10

 

新华网伊斯坦布尔10月22日电土耳其央行周四不顾市场预期,维持基准利率不变,使土耳其货币对美元和欧元的汇率创下历史新低。


在货币政策委员会(MPC)会议之后,中央银行将其政策利率维持在10.25%。


央行在一份声明中表示:“为抑制通胀预期和通胀前景风险,采取了货币政策和流动性管理措施,金融环境明显收紧。”


一项对经济学家的调查预测,本月至少会加息175个基点,这一决定令土耳其货币贬值至1美元兑7.97土耳其里拉,1欧元兑9.44土耳其里拉,创下历史新低。


伊斯坦布尔当地时间下午3:30,美元下跌1.7%,报7.94。本周,人民币汇率升至两周高点,原因是市场预期会像9月份那样加息。


货币在最近几周有所贬值。自2018年末发生货币危机以来,央行首次在9月22日将一周回购利率(即央行的政策利率)上调了200个基点,以对抗通胀并支持价格稳定。


总部位于伊斯坦布尔的Tera Securities的经济学家Enver Erkan在一份给投资者的报告中称,"央行采取了出人意料的举措,将政策利率维持在10.25%不变。"他警告称,借贷成本仍低于通胀率。


他表示:“10月份货币政策委员会不围绕政策利率进行变动,这将意味着简单货币政策方向的改变,也将意味着政策利率和有效融资利率的分离。”


驻伦敦研究新兴市场的经济学家蒂莫西•阿什(Timothy Ash)认为,土耳其央行采取了“非常规”的决定,以应对里拉不断走弱和通胀加剧的问题。


“这使得在土耳其投资变得非常困难,”他在自己的Twitter账户上说。


土耳其出现了强劲的美元化趋势,尽管当局提高了存款费用,并采取了其他鼓励用里拉储蓄的措施,土耳其公民仍在继续购买外币。


由于受COVID-19疫情影响,土耳其脆弱的经济受到新的担忧,里拉自今年年初以来贬值了25%。


经济学家认为,目前的经济低迷是由于全球健康危机和土耳其外汇储备大幅下降造成的整体经济低迷所致。


评级机构穆迪(Moody's)估计,土耳其央行试图支撑里拉的行动,已导致土耳其的美元和欧元储备降至20年来的低点。


土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)呼吁央行将利率保持在低位,并声称借款成本上升会导致通胀。


去年,央行在8次会议上将政策利率从24%下调了1200个基点。


土耳其9月份的通货膨胀率为11.8%,与前一个月持平。


央行对金融业专业人士的调查显示,今年年底的通胀预期从9月份的11.5%上升到11.8%。今年7月,央行将其对2020年通胀率的预测从之前的7.4%上调至8.9%。

 

ISTANBUL, Oct. 22 (Xinhua) -- Turkey's central bank defied market expectations on Thursday and maintained its benchmark interest rate, sending the Turkish currency to new record lows against the U.S. dollar and euro.

Following its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, the central bank kept its policy rate at 10.25 percent.

"A significant tightening in financial conditions has been achieved, following the monetary policy and liquidity management steps taken to contain inflation expectations and risks to the inflation outlook," the central bank said in a statement.

As a survey of economists predicted at least a 175 basis-point hike this month and surprised by this decision, the Turkish currency weakened to a new historic low against the dollar at 7.97 Turkish liras and the euro at 9.44.

The greenback was down 1.7 percent and trading at 7.94 at 3:30 p.m. local time in Istanbul. The currency had rallied to a two-week high this week on anticipation of a hike as it did in September.

The currency had weakened in recent weeks. For the first time since a currency crisis in late 2018, the central bank had raised its one-week repo rate, also known as the bank's policy rate, by 200 basis points on Sept. 22 in an effort to fight inflation and support price stability.

"In an unexpected move, the central bank left the policy rate unchanged at 10.25 percent," Enver Erkan, an economist with Istanbul-based Tera Securities, said in a note to investors, warning that borrowing costs are still below inflation rates.

"The fact that the October MPC does not move around the policy rate will mean a change in the direction of the simple monetary policy, and it will also mean the separation of policy interest and effective funding rate," he commented.

Timothy Ash, a London-based economist covering emerging markets, argued that the Turkish central bank took an "unorthodox" decision to tackle a weakening lira and elevated inflation.

"It makes it very hard to invest in Turkey," he said on his Twitter account.

There is a strong dollarization trend in Turkey where citizens are continuing to buy foreign currency despite the authorities introducing higher charges on deposits and other measures designed to encourage saving in liras.

The lira has lost 25 percent of its value since the start of this year amid new concerns for the vulnerable Turkish economy, which has been affected by the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Economists attribute the current downturn to a general economic malaise caused by the global health crisis and a sharp drop in Turkey's foreign currency reserves.

The Moody's rating agency estimated that the central bank's attempts to prop up the lira have seen Turkey's stockpile of dollars and euros shrink to a 20-year low.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called on the central bank to keep interest rates low, claiming that higher borrowing costs are inflationary.

Last year, the bank cut the policy rate in eight meetings by a total of 1,200 basis points from 24 percent.

Inflation in Turkey stood at 11.8 percent in September, unchanged from the previous month.

Expectations for inflation at the end of the year rose to 11.8 percent in a central bank survey of finance industry professionals this month from 11.5 percent in September. The bank raised its forecast for inflation in 2020 to 8.9 percent in July, from a previous estimate of 7.4 percent.

 

来自: xinhua