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欧洲央行研究证实CBDC将对国际间经济活动产生影响

2020-11-23 17:27

 

本月早些时候,欧洲央行(ECB)的研究人员发布了一份关于央行数字货币(CBDC)及其对外国经济的潜在影响的报告。研究发现,CBDC增加了货币冲击的国际影响,但CBDC的设计有助于解决这些问题。


它模拟了两个开放经济体的各种情景,其中存在金融冲击,包括有和没有cbdc。在没有CBDC的情况下,当经济受到冲击时,资产往往会流向外币债券。在还有CBDC的场景中,切换到外币CBDC的可能性更大,而不是债券。


这种转变可以通过限制外国人进入CBDC或控制数字货币的利率来减少。


研究人员还研究了在没有冲击的情况下的日常货币政策。研究发现,发行国内CBDC将影响外国货币政策的自主权。有人认为这会导致先发优势。


三周前,在欧盟区块链天文台和论坛上,加拿大央行(Bank of Canada)的斯科特•亨德利(Scott Hendry)强调了这些担忧。加拿大关于CBDC的文件先前也提出了这些问题。在谈到对货币主权的威胁时,亨德利表示,"我通常认为这是一个概率较低但灾难性的事件。"


他接着说,“如果有一个美元CBDC或美元天秤座,对加拿大的影响基本上是相同的。这可能会导致加拿大经济的美元化。”


两个月前,欧洲央行发布了关于CBDC的更广泛的文件,并计划就是否在2021年年中发行数字欧元做出决定。政府还就这一问题开展了公众咨询。


与此同时,由于Facebook公布了其天秤座计划,以及中国拥有先进的数字人民币试点(eCNY)的先发优势,世界各国央行都加大了对cbdc的关注。

 

Earlier this month, researchers at the European Central Bank (ECB) published a report on Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and the potential impact on foreign economies. It found that CBDC increases the international ramifications of monetary shocks, but the CBDC design can help to address the issues.

It modeled various scenarios with two open economies in which there were financial shocks, both with and without CBDCs. In the absence of a CBDC, there’s often a movement of assets into foreign currency bonds when there are shocks to an economy. In a scenario where there are also CBDCs, the switch is more likely to be into a foreign currency CBDC than bonds.

This shift can be reduced by restricting access to the CBDC by foreigners or controlling the digital currency’s interest rate.

The researchers also explored everyday monetary policy in the absence of shocks. It found that issuing a domestic CBDC will impact the autonomy of the foreign country’s monetary policy. And it’s argued this can result in a first-mover advantage.

Three weeks ago, at the EU Blockchain Observatory and Forum, Scott Hendry from the Bank of Canada highlighted these concerns. They were also previously raised in Canada’s paper on CBDC. Talking about the threat to monetary sovereignty, Hendry said, “I typically view this as a low probability but catastrophic event.” 

He continued, “If there’s a U.S. dollar CBDC or a U.S. dollar Libra, the implications for Canada are basically the same. It would potentially lead to the dollarization of the Canadian economy.”

Two months ago, the ECB published its broader paper on CBDC and plans to make a decision on whether to issue a digital euro by mid-2021. It has also opened a public consultation on the topic.

Meanwhile, central banks worldwide have increased their focus on CBDCs as a result of Facebook unveiling its Libra plans and the first-mover advantage that China has with its advanced pilots for the digital yuan or eCNY.

 

来自: Ledger Insights