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全美零售联合会预计,尽管新冠肺炎大流行,美国假日销售仍将增长

2020-11-24 17:07

 

2020年11月9日,人们在美国纽约的冬季博览会上购物。(新华社/王英)


美国经济分析师Jack Kleinhenz称,美国家庭拥有强劲的资产负债表,受股市强劲、房价上涨和政府今年稍早公布的刺激支出推动的创纪录储蓄支撑。


新华社华盛顿11月23日电(记者陈晓明)美国全国零售联合会23日预测,尽管2019年11月至12月期间出现新冠肺炎疫情,但节日零售额仍将增长3.6%至5.2%。


NRF的预测数字不包括汽车经销商、加油站和餐馆。


NRF首席分析师Jack Kleinhenz在声明中称,"鉴于疫情,消费者支出意愿仍不确定,但随着经济改善,多数人有能力支出。"


Kleinhenz表示,美国家庭拥有强劲的资产负债表,受股市强劲、房价上涨和政府今年稍早公布的刺激支出推动的创纪录储蓄支撑。


Kleinhenz说:“在他们经历了这么多之后,我们认为,他们应该有一个比平常更好的假期,这是他们对自己和家人的一种心理因素。”他同时指出,如果病毒继续蔓延,经济将面临风险。


2020年10月16日,美国纽约,人们戴着面具在梅西百货商店购物。(新华社/王英)


美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)最近也警告说,经济仍存在明显的下行风险,因为即便是在最好的情况下,大规模接种疫苗仍需数月时间。


根据美国疾病控制和预防中心(CDC)的最新数据,美国各地新冠肺炎确诊病例激增,过去7天新增病例超过118万例。该国的总病例数超过了1200万。


为了应对疫情激增,全国各地的州长都恢复了限制性措施,以遏制病毒的蔓延,这给未来的经济复苏蒙上了阴影。


据NRF称,许多家庭预计将依赖数字购物来完成他们的假期购物,就像他们今年的日常消费一样。


假日季节,传统上是一年中零售商最大的时间,通常指11月底的感恩节和12月底的圣诞节之间的日子。NRF将假日季定义为11月1日至12月31日。

 

People do shopping at a winter fair in New York, the United States, Nov. 9, 2020. (Xinhua/Wang Ying)

Households have strong balance sheets supported by a strong stock market, rising home values and record savings boosted by government stimulus payments issued earlier this year, U.S. economist Jack Kleinhenz said.

WASHINGTON, Nov. 23 (Xinhua) -- The National Retail Federation (NRF) on Monday forecasted that holiday sales during November and December will increase between 3.6 percent and 5.2 percent over 2019 despite uncertainty due to COVID-19.

The numbers forecast by NRF exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

"Given the pandemic, there is uncertainty about consumers' willingness to spend, but with the economy improving most have the ability to spend," NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a statement.

Kleinhenz said households have strong balance sheets supported by a strong stock market, rising home values and record savings boosted by government stimulus payments issued earlier this year.

"After all they've been through, we think there's going to be a psychological factor that they owe it to themselves and their families to have a better-than-normal holiday," Kleinhenz said, while noting that there are risks to the economy if the virus continues to spread.

People wearing face masks do shopping at a Macy's store in New York, the United States, on Oct. 16, 2020. (Xinhua/Wang Ying)

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently also cautioned that significant downside risks for the economy remain, as widespread vaccination is still months away even in the best case.

Confirmed COVID-19 cases are skyrocketing across the United States, with over 1.18 million new cases reported in the last seven days, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The total number of cases in the country surpassed 12 million.

In response to surging infections, governors across the country have reinstated restrictive measures to curb the spread of the virus, casting shadow over economic recovery going forward.

According to the NRF, many households are expected to depend on digital shopping to make many of their holiday purchases, just as they have for much of their everyday spending this year.

Holiday season, traditionally the biggest time of year for retailers, generally refers to the days between Thanksgiving in late November and Christmas in late December. NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.

 

来自: xinhua