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国际货币基金组织预计,2021年中国经济将增长7.9%

2021-1-9 12:03

 

新华网华盛顿1月8日电(记者王磊)——国际货币基金组织(IMF)周五表示,随着经济活动继续正常化,国内新冠肺炎疫情仍在控制之下,中国经济预计在2020年增长1.9%之后,2021年将增长7.9%。


国际货币基金组织(IMF)执行董事会在结束对中国经济的年度第四条款(Article IV)评估后发表声明称,“在强有力的遏制措施和迅速缓解危机影响的政策行动的帮助下,中国经济继续快速复苏。”


IMF执行董事会表示:“政策制定者提供了金融救助和财政支持,以保护受影响最严重的企业,同时维护金融稳定。”该机构补充称,宏观经济和金融政策支持了经济复苏。


IMF执行董事们呼吁,在中国经济复苏取得坚实基础之前,继续实施“适度支持”的财政和货币政策。


三位执行董事表示,随着经济复苏的确立,支持金融业的临时措施应被解决问题贷款和加强监管框架的政策所取代。


两位董事还欢迎中国在结构性改革方面取得的持续进展,特别是在进一步开放金融部门和通过“户籍改革”改善劳动力流动方面。


他们表示:“结构性改革将是促进潜在增长、减少外部失衡、建设更具弹性、更绿色和更具包容性经济的关键。”


"在我们的基线预测下,我们假设今年(中国经济)增长的主要推动力将是私人消费," IMF中国事务主管兼亚太部门助理主任Helge Berger周五在新闻发布会上对新华社表示。


伯杰表示,随着疫情在2021年消退,个人消费应该会回升,并将强劲到足以弥补投资的较小作用和公众支持的逐渐退出。


他表示:“以促进消费的方式调整财政政策支持的构成也将是至关重要的,这可以通过加强社会保障网络来实现。”


伯杰表示,对中国2021年经济增长率的最新预测略低于国际货币基金组织去年10月估计的8.2%,因为国际货币基金组织工作人员现在预计中国当局今年提供更少的财政支持。


他表示:“根据最近的事态发展,我们未来将再次审视这一预测。”


在周二发布的最新《全球经济展望》中,世界银行还预计,2021年中国经济将增长7.9%。


世界银行负责公平增长和金融机构事务的代理副行长艾汉·科泽(Ayhan Kose)说,迄今为止,中国的复苏进程“比预期的要快”,被压抑的需求释放的力度也强于预期。


“随着中国经济继续从新冠肺炎冲击中稳步复苏,中国当局将继续致力于实施稳健政策,促进未来可持续和高质量增长,”国际货币基金组织中国执行董事金中霞向新华社表示。


金勇表示,中国已签署《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP),已完成与欧盟的双边投资协定谈判,相信中国将继续扩大全球经济联系与合作,提高经济效率和韧性。

 

WASHINGTON, Jan. 8 (Xinhua) -- China's economy is projected to expand by 7.9 percent in 2021 following 1.9 percent growth in 2020, as economic activity continues to normalize and domestic COVID-19 outbreaks remain under control, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Friday.

"The Chinese economy continues its fast recovery from the pandemic, helped by a strong containment effort and swift policy actions to mitigate the impact of the crisis," the executive board of the IMF said in a statement after concluding the annual Article IV review of the Chinese economy.

"Policymakers have provided financial relief and fiscal support to protect the most-affected firms while safeguarding financial stability," the IMF's executive board said, adding macroeconomic and financial policies have supported the economic recovery.

IMF executive directors called for a continuation of the "moderately supportive" fiscal and monetary policies until China's recovery is on solid ground.

As the recovery takes hold, the temporary measures supporting the financial sector should be replaced with policies to address problem loans and strengthen regulatory and supervisory frameworks, said the executive directors.

The directors also welcomed continued progress on China's structural reforms, particularly in further opening up of the financial sector and improving labor mobility through "hukou reforms".

"Structural reform will be key to boosting potential growth, reduce external imbalances, and build a more resilient, green, and inclusive economy," they said.

"We're assuming under our baseline forecast the main driver of (China's economic) growth this year will be private consumption," Helge Berger, the IMF's China mission chief and assistant director in the Asia and Pacific Department, told Xinhua on Friday at a press briefing.

Berger said private consumption should pick up in 2021 as the pandemic recedes, and it will be strong enough to compensate for a smaller role of investment and for a gradual withdrawal of public support.

"It will be also crucial to adjust the composition of fiscal policy support in a way that facilitates consumption, and this can be done by strengthening social safety nets," he said.

Berger said the latest projection for China's growth rate in 2021 was a little bit lower than 8.2 percent the IMF estimated in October last year, as the IMF staff now expect Chinese authorities to provide lower fiscal support this year.

"We are going to look at this forecast again in the future in light of the most recent developments," he said.

In its latest Global Economic Prospects released Tuesday, the World Bank also expected China's economy to expand by 7.9 percent in 2021.

China's recovery so far has been proceeding "more rapidly than expected," and also supported by stronger-than-expected release of pent-up demand, said World Bank Acting Vice President for Equitable Growth and Financial Institutions Ayhan Kose.

"As the Chinese economy continues to steadily recover from the COVID-19 shock, the authorities remain committed to pursuing prudent policies that will foster sustainable and high-quality growth going forward," Jin Zhongxia, IMF executive director for China, told Xinhua.

Citing the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement and the completion of bilateral investment agreement negotiations with the European Union (EU), Jin believed that China will continue to expand global economic linkages and cooperation to enhance its economic efficiency and resilience.

 

来自: xinhua